04
Jan
Dissecting The Economic Collapse; Mourning The Gaza Bloodshed
ECONOMY WILL TURN AROUND — NOT!
THE DYING ESCALATES IN GAZA
BILL RICHARDSON STEPS DOWN TO DEAL WITH PROBE
1. A new year.

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2. Another ride?

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3. Stocks rally on the first day.

Well.
That was all some professional prognosticators needed to offer sunny optimism about the prospects of economic recovery.
The cheerleaders of the New York Times — a newspaper, which ran a piece Saturday PRAISING some of President Bush’s “achievements” (sic) in health care because “its ONLY FAIR,” also, found some new reasons to believe: Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery
“Economics as the dismal science? Not in some quarters.
In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over. For this rosy picture to play out, they are counting on the Obama administration and Congress to come through with a substantial stimulus package, at least $675 billion over two years.”
Slipping back into my book, ‘Plunder,’ I recalled a reference to another Times headline in October 2007, just a month before the recession is officially said to have begun. It read:

Hmm.
Two months later, to the day, the Wall Street Journal was drinking the same Kool Aid: “US Economy Down; Not Out.”
• “The economy is in a soft patch right now,” said Mike Moran of Daiwa Securities. “My personal view is it’s not a recession type-softness.”
• Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch expect new-home sales to fall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 706,000 in November, down from 728,000 a month before.
• It’s still debatable whether the troubles in the subprime market will spill over into the broader economy and stop growth.
On this past Friday, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page mea culpa posing as a news story, “The Doomsayers Who Got It Right,” a story profiling experts who predicted the economic collapse we are experiencing. If they got right, then the Journal, and most of our financial press, largely got it wrong.
Most of these “journalists” are so embedded in the financial culture that they refuse to recognize their own complicity in the disaster, i.e., by not investigating when it was happening and not warning us about the deception in the real estate market. At a New Year’s Eve party, I was arguing with one New York Times real estate reporter who kept insisting she, and by extension, her newspaper, was on top of it. She was dismissive of my critique. They may be covering it better now with their retrospective ‘The Recckoning’ series but that’s all well after the fact.
Did they plumb the depths of predatory lending and white collar crime before the markets crashed? Did the expose the lack of regulatiions and the profiteers? Did they go after the ponzi schemers like Madoff? I don’t think so.
The NakedCapitalism.com blog skewers a NYT magazine story suggesting that the crisis can be blamed on faulty RISK MODELS.
WHO SAW IT COMING? Henry Blodgett writes on Clusterstock
Now that we’re mired in the worst economic crisis since the Depression, forecasters who didn’t see it coming are consoling themselves by saying, “no one saw it coming.” This is hogwash.

Many people saw it coming:
• Gary Shilling,
• Nouriel Roubini,
• Jeremy Grantham,
• Dean Baker,
• Peter Schiff,
• Robert Manning
• Robert Kuttner
• Robert Shiller, et al.
NOTE: May I be ever so humble as to include my less austere “alarmist” self in the aforementioned austere listing of the good and great?
They just don’t happen to work for major investment banks. It is true that the folks who work for major investment banks didn’t see it coming. Historians will eventually determine whether this is because the major investment banks uniformly employ boneheads, or, more likely, because, when you work for an investment bank, it is easier to conclude that now is always a good time to buy stocks.
THE RISING WALL OF DEBT
As the Times, which is closer to Wall Street than the Washington Post, looked up, the Post looked down with a lead story pointing to the real structural and systemic problem: DEBT.
U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year
With President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats considering a massive spending package aimed at pulling the nation out of recession, the national debt is projected to jump by as much as $2 trillion this year, an unprecedented increase that could test the world’s appetite for financing…
BEWARE OPTION ARMS
Reggie Middleton, who does a “boom-bust” blog writes on Seeking Alpha about the next great shock to the economy.
“After the subprime saga the asset securitization crisis unfolds, another chapter up its sleeves with added melancholy, called the Option ARMs. With billions of Option ARMs due for recast in 2009 and 2010 another crisis is on the making. But this time problems are expected to be more pronounced than the subprime crisis since the economy is already nearing its trough, the consumer confidence has slumped to an all time recent history low and financial markets are in a gridlock. Making the matters worse is the unrelenting fall in the US housing market which is showing no signs of stabilization.”
FACTS ON THE CRISIS; OBAMA TO THE RESCUE?
You want some facts in a form that might even be fun to read, check out this slide show, ‘How To Wreck The Economy‘ everything you ever wanted to know about the biggest economic meltdown since the Great Depression but were afraid to ask’, from The INDYPENDENT, a must read New York newspaper:
Arun Gupta, who worked on the slide show with our favorite economist, Max Fraad Wolf, had written earlier about the stimulus plan that Obama wants to implement on day one. He doesn’t think it can work:

ILLUSTRATION: JENNIFER LEW
“Shortly after his Jan. 20 inauguration, if all goes according to plan, President Barack Obama will submit an economic stimulus plan to Congress. (DS: Obama called for such a plan in a radio address this past Saturday warning of the dangers of double digit unemployment.) The plan will be of such historic proportions that the media will compare it incessantly to the New Deal; it will probably come with an eye-popping price tag of more than $500 billion; free-market ideologues will wail about the end of capitalism but will be almost powerless to stop it; Congress will jockey to lard it with pet projects as the price of approval.
Those who are already blasting Obama for not doing what they think he should or appoint a different crowd need to be reminded that he doesn’t pretend to be Hugo Chavez. He is a radical, all right, but a radical centrist, not leftist. Back in March 2008, John Judis wrote in The New Republic:
“Even if Obama manages to win, he could very well fail as president. Just as the hopes of Jacksonian Democrats were shattered by the irrepressible conflict over slavery, Obama’s dreams—and his movement—could founder in Iraq and the Middle East.” (That was written before the financial crisis became the number #1 issue.)
Oh, I know that sounds bad, and I certainly don’t want to bum you out. Already, my Associate Dissectrix thinks I may be too negative (and she is probably right), but my colleague, Sharon Kayser, makes me look like a shill for the system. She writes in her latest, closely argued, essay:
“As you read this, the American bailout is reaching epic and fatal proportions of more than 8 trillion and the worst is not over yet. Actually, the current trends are already much worse than depression, though because of some banking toxic tricks and frauds, risks are being constantly shifted down the social ladder deteriorating the consumers purchasing power for ever. There’s nothing that can rescue the system as the crisis was built into the system itself.
Although this has not be aired on any major TV broadcast, when the world Leaders got together to discuss our fate last October, they admitted to being incapable of doing anything. That we are all scr*w*d. The Australian ministerial statement by Kevin Rudd sums it up pretty well while acknowledging that the global wealth destruction amounts to $27 trillion - and that is far from over. Among many other terrifying recent events, discount window borrowing (from the Fed. Reserve) in the week ended Oct 15 averaged a record $437.5 billion per day, surpassing the $420.2 billion rate in the prior week… please note that it is not included in the cumulative 8 trillion package!
In a debt-based economy, competition translates into a ‘great crash enhancer’. Take this housing bubble, its engineers, which couldn’t anything to stop the infectious exuberance, figuring that market saturation would eventually have the last word . This didn’t prevent them from firmly believing that prices had some room to run up… and everybody competed to get the very last piece of the pie. What is truly outraging is that we board onto the Titanic because Credit Rating Agencies sold us a fictive ’star system’, which has led us to a triple A junk status.” Watch the video in full from PBS.
Sorry, gang but I am duty bound to go further with this article that says the “infection” has spread: This is from the Global Economy Does Matter blog. FYI, the author, Edward Hugh, known as ‘the bonobo’ is a Catalan economist of British extraction based in Barcelona. The source of the information is courtesy of JP Morgan, not The Monthly Review:
December’s JPMorgan Global PMI Shows Just How Far The Infection Has Spread by Edward Hugh: Barcelona
Well, here’s the chart I think everyone really need to see (below). The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI hit 33.2 in December, a series record. More to the point you can get a comparison between what is happening now and the 2001 “recession lite” with only a swift glance, and, of course, the 2009 long recession is only just getting started.

Now let’s stick it alongside the one Paul Krugman put up last week of the US Great Depression:

Arguably, what we can see here is that the current collapse in industrial activity is starting to get near the US historic one in terms of proportions, but we still aren’t quite there yet. What we could note that JP Morgan in their monthly report suggest that the present rates of output are equivalent to an annual fall of between 12% and 15%. Really to compare with the fall in the US we need to get up into the 20% region, but remember the global index is based on an average for 26 countries, and some of these are much worse than others (Japan, Spain, possibly Russia) and will already be around the 20% annual contraction rate in December. The point is also that the situation is still deteriorating, so hang on a bit, since it is not at all excluded that we will hit a 20% annualized contraction rate for the whole aggregate 26 sometime during the first quarter.”
OK, enough, but you see where I am going, and maybe where we are all going: DOWN. (Although there are only 250 “Trading Days” left until next Christmas!)

The question is no longer, ‘Will Obama Save Us?’ The question really is, ‘can he or any one politician, by throwing more money at the problem, solve this “problem” after so much money has already been flushed away or disappeared? Anyone for footwear hurling?
Watch CSPAN Monday for the hearings on how the SEC blew its Madoff oversight when it may have been possible to stop the mad dog. So far, we still do NOT have all the facts or many facts at all about the biggest scam in the history of the world.
Rich Bookstaber writes about Bernie’s alleged perfidy:
The Madoff Ponzi scheme will (I hope) be the high watermark for financial fraud for many decades to come. It is hard to overstate the harm it has done, with lifesavings and fortunes lost, charities and schools left foundering.
“It fell off a Truck”
Did his investors really believe Madoff was doing split-strike conversions? Given that there were not enough options in the world for Madoff to do such a strategy? And given that no one in the industry heard of him as a player in that market? An alternative view is that the split-strike conversion story is the equivalent of the “it fell off the truck” story for people buying stolen goods; that investors suspected he was involved in illegal front running, and would just as soon not have had that spelled out for them while the money kept flowing in.
HEADLINES
• SOROS PART OF GROUP TO BUY INDYMAC BANK IN GREAT DEAL
WASHINGTON (AP) — A seven-member investor group including billionaire George Soros and Dell Inc. founder Michael Dell have agreed to purchase failed lender IndyMac Bank, one of the largest casualties of the housing bust, for $13.9 billion.
• FDIC WILL LOSE BILLIONS ON DEAL
IndyMac has 33 bank branches in Southern California with about $6.5 billion in deposits, about half the company’s total at the time of its failure. Other IndyMac assets include a $157.7 billion loan servicing business, which collects mortgages and distributes them to investors, and a reverse-mortgage company, known as Financial Freedom.

The failure of IndyMac, which had $32 billion in assets, was the second-largest last year, trailing only the September failure of Washington Mutual Inc. Under terms of the sale, the new investors will shoulder the first 20 percent of the bank’s loan losses, with the FDIC agreeing to take on the majority of any losses thereafter. The FDIC said Friday its bank insurance fund stands to lose $8.5 billion to $9.4 billion on IndyMac.
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